Red Alert! Economic Collapse Accelerates and SKEW Index Predicts Massacre! MH17 a Diversion of Whats Going On Now!

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Red Alert! While everyone is focused on Malaysian Airline 17 the SKEW Index is predicting a global meltdown of the economy!

 

What is the Skew Index?

 

“The CBOE Skew IndexSM – referred to as “SKEW” – is an option-based indicator that measures the perceived tail risk of the distribution of S&P 500® log returns at a 30-day horizon. Tail risk is the risk associated with an increase in the probability of outlier returns, returns two or more standard deviations below the mean. Think stock market crash, or black swan. This probability is negligible for a normal distribution, but can be significant for distributions which are skewed and have fat tails. As illustrated in the chart below, the distribution of S&P 500 log returns has a sizeable left tail. This makes it riskier than a normal distribution with the same mean and the same volatility. SKEW quantifies the additional risk.”

 Economist Gregory Mannarino brings us the latest… 

Put simply, there is no tail risk when SKEW is equal to 100 or lower. SKEW can be used to gauge the probabilities of returns two and three standard deviations below the mean. If SKEW is close to 100, the probability of a steep market decline remains very small, however if SKEW rises above 100, the probability increases. We are currenlty at the 142 range.

The last time SKEW reached its all time high of 146.88 was on Oct. 16, 1998 when we were in the midst of the Russian crisis, and the day after the decision by the Federal Reserve Board to decrease both the target federal fund rate and the discount rate. The SKEW index also rose in March 2006 when many were concerned about the housing market crisis.

For More Information on SKEW Index See:
http://www.cboe.com/micro/skew/documents/skewfaq.pdf