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Israelis have been waiting for more than four years for a visit from President Barack Obama —but if their leaders can’t agree soon on a government, they may have to wait even longer.
Obama is expected to leave March 19 for his first-ever trip as president to Israel, with additional stops in the West Bank and Jordan.
That’s just three days after the deadline Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is still struggling to meet to form a governing coalition after his Likud party won a narrowed plurality in Jan. 22 elections there.
”As you know I was hoping to speak to you in person, but unfortunately, I had to stay in Israel to do something a lot more enjoyable: putting together a coalition government. What fun!” Netanyahu said sarcastically Monday in a speech delivered via satellite to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee meeting in Washington.
Netanyahu’s already gotten one two-week extension. If he doesn’t get a government set by the new March 16 deadline, Israeli President Shimon Peres will have to choose between ordering a new election and asking another leader to try to form a government.
The tensions and tight time frame put Obama in a tricky situation as preparations for the trip continue: risk heading overseas to meet with a leader in political turmoil, or decide to postpone the trip — a move that would undoubtedly stir trouble for a president with an already rocky relationship with Netanyahu and heavily scrutinized relationship with the Jewish State.
White House press secretary Jay Carney said there were “no scheduling changes to announce” when asked Monday about the status of the trip in light of the uncertainty. But the State Department is already on record citing the unsettled ’s government as the reason Secretary John Kerry skipped a stop there on his first trip abroad, which wraps up this week.
“Given the fact that the government coalition negotiations in Israel are still underway, the Secretary will be traveling there with the president when he visits later in the spring in lieu of making his own separate trip in February to Jerusalem and Ramallah,” Victoria Nuland said at a Feb. 19 briefing.
Asked why the Israeli elections precluded a visit even to the Palestinian Authority headquarters in Ramallah, Nuland said: “Generally, we go to both when we’re there, and I think there was a sense that the Israelis are still working on their coalition.”
Now, the White House may have to confront whether a reason that was good enough to keep the secretary of state away will be enough to keep the president away too.
“By the 20th, if Netanyahu doesn’t have a government, who is [Obama] going to talk to?” said Aharon Barnea of Israel’s Channel 2 News. “There is a chance it won’t be done…. Everyone is spinning that it will be, but there’s still a chance it won’t be done in 13 days.”
“There is a chance Obama won’t go,” if Netanyahu hasn’t formed a government, Malcolm Hoenlein of the Council of Presidents of Major American Jewish organizations told POLITICO last month.
Barnea and other Israeli news outlets have reported that if Netanyahu does not form a government by the 16th, Obama is likely to postpone his visit. “Obama’s visit puts a lot of pressure on Netanyahu. No doubt about it,” the journalist said.
In speeches Monday to the AIPAC conference in Washington, Vice President Joe Biden and Netanyahu suggested Obama’s trip is full speed ahead notwithstanding the political uncertainty in Israel.
“The president….and I have spoken at length about this trip. And I can assure you he’s particularly looking forward to having a chance to hear directly from the people of Israel and beyond their political leaders, and particularly the younger generation of Israelis,” Biden said. “The vibrancy, the optimism, the absolute commitment is contagious, and he’s looking forward to seeing it and feeling it and tasting it.”
Biden said he was envious of Obama’s chance to take the trip. “I have to admit I’m a little jealous that he gets to be the one to say ‘this year in Jerusalem,’ but I’m the vice president. I’m not the president,” Biden said during his morning address at the Convention Center.
”The first thing that my new government will have the privilege of doing is to warmly welcome President Obama to Israel,” Netanyahu said, in his speech a short time later via satellite from his office in Jerusalem.However, a weary-sounding Netanyahu also indicated that the negotiations around forming a government have been an ordeal.
“If I can offer a free piece of advice: don’t adopt Israel’s system of government. You know, every system has its pluses and minuses. But believe me, it’s a lot easier finding common ground between two parties than it is to find common ground among ten parties. You think you have a difficulty working out your politics, believe me, this is harder,” the prime minister said. “Despite the difficulties, I intend to form a strong and stable government in the days ahead,” he insisted.
Carney said planning for the visit is continuing, but he stopped short of saying the trip would go on even if no governing coalition is formed. “The president is looking forward to, very much, his trip to Israel and the region, and we’re on course planning that trip,” the spokesman said.
Asked whether the State Department’s comments on the importance of a sitting Israeli government would apply to Obama’s visit as well, a White House spokeswoman declined to elaborate beyond Carney’s remark.
Given the need to move Secret Service personnel, communications equipment and advance staff well before a presidential visit, the White House may need to make a decision on scrubbing the trip even before Netanyahu’s March 16 deadline.
In March 2009, Netanyahu also asked for a 14-day extension to form a government and essentially nailed down his coalition about one week later, Barnea noted.
During much of Obama’s first term, the relationship between Obama and Netanyahu was noticeably chilly, particularly after Obama’s initial, unsuccessful efforts to jump start the Mideast peace process focused on convincing Israel to cease settlement activity. There was also political suspicion among Obama supporters that Netanyahu was trying to defeat Obama in last year’s election and among Netanyahu supporters that Obama was rooting for the prime minister’s defeat earlier this year.
Hoenlein, who spent a week in Israel last month with a delegation of Jewish leaders from the U.S., said average Israelis are eagerly anticipating Obama’s visit although some are nervous about his agenda.
Obama and Netanyahu have said the main topics to be discussed are Iran, Syria and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Some Israeli press reports have suggested the main purpose of the trip is to pressure Israel not to strike Iran and to leave the matter to the U.S.
“People are concerned about what the real goal is. There’s a lot of speculation…..They keep asking, ‘Why is he coming? Why is he coming?’” Hoenlein said. “I say, ‘For four years, you were saying, “Why isn’t he coming?” Now, you’re asking “Why is he coming?”’”
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